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| Your analysis is grossly incomplete | |
| Posted By: RC Master | Date: 1/17/12 10:12 a.m. |
In Response To: Statistical Analysis of DMR Behavior (Hoovaloov) Lower bound, upper bound, 1st quartile, median, mode, 3rd quartile, inter-quartile range, upper bound, range. Mean average is susceptible to unfair skew from extreme values. Crunch the numbers, and I doubt you will see the same picture. To be clear, simply running them off side-by-side from quickest to slowest and declaring a victor in each case is fallacious since by the random nature, ANY of the pacer's times could go up against ANY of the spammer's times. More relevent is the skew and range to see how it would work out fight after fight - the picture you will see by working out the values at the beginning of my post. I'd also like to see you run the numbers for a TU Needle Rifle alongside these. I hasten to note that I already believe it will match or outclass the TU DMR in every category. Additionally, 'pacing' and 'spamming' aren't the only two ways to use a DMR either. You can 'spam' the first 4 shots at the body as fast as you can, and then aim the final shot at the head. The amount of time you wait for the reticle reset for this 5th shot can vary as well - since demonstrated by the spam data, you still have a large chance to hit the head with a large reticle. Your technique (or mistakes) can mean the 5th shot is 100% accurate or your target's head may only make up a fraction. Basically - it's more complicated than you're making it seem. Your data is also incomplete. You mention that "I also compared the probability of a spammed headshot kill in each of these groups." - while we can conclude that spammed kills which took 6 or less shots definitely resulted in a final headshot, we do not know if kills which took 6 or more shots included shots which outright MISSED, or shots which only hit the body. If they missed, their target has an opportunity to stay zoomed in for an extra returning shot, reducing their cone of fire and making them more accurate. If they still hit, but were body hits, this still causes damage, making the target weaker for teammates or for you if the target fails to pick up a healthpack before your next encounter. Furthermore, your methodology is incomplete: are these kills zoomed, unzoomed. Did you change depending upon range? For what justification? Are you aiming at the head for both pacing and spammed? For what justification? (the body is a larger target for both of them and location of shooting does not matter for the first 4 shots in both TU and Default). Finally, average ping across all matches was quoted as 100ms in Halo 3 - or about 3 frames. I know of no reason to assume this has changed in Reach. You can mutually headshot one another in Reach (i've seen it) - I am uncertain as to the level of in-built tolerance the game has for this (no. of frames) but empirically it is there to some degree. Therefore, declaring outright 'victory' for one side or the other when the difference is within +/-3 frames is probably fallacious. So, for example, even within your flawed run-off, the short-range, TU category should have a good 6 rows of 'neither' winning. P.S. the Medium range, 85% bloom, pacing category is not sorted.
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