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| November 2011 REACH Population Report | |
| Posted By: DEEP NNN <deep_nnn@hotmail.com> | Date: 11/30/11 9:12 p.m. |
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These values are unofficial and collected manually by me from the Bungie REACH project page. I make no guarantees for the accuracy of this data and provided no quality control or quality assurance for my work in collecting it. http://www.bungie.net/Projects/Reach/default.aspx
In the following graph I attempted to offset Halo 3 values such that similar days of the week for November were compared. I am not 100% happy with the result but I still feel it is a better comparison than just using exact dates.
November 2011 REACH UU/24hr
Disclosure for my collection methods.
Draw conclusions at your own risk. My observations.
Highest population value collected 514,398. Lowest population value collected 294,105. Weekends have typically had a higher population. REACH population by the end of November 2011, is under performing by ~200,000/24hrs as compared to Halo 3 during November 2008. It is important to note that at this same point in Halo 3's life, it was experiencing it lowest population point (not including REACH pre-launch period). Conclusions.
Overall population is increasing slightly. I don't remember what was going on around November 5th to cause the spike. The upward jumps in population after the 14th are most likely due to the Halo Anniversary launch and USA Thanksgiving holidays. Opinion.
My guess from last month appears to have been sort of correct. "[i]Halo Anniversary will bring back to REACH approximately 100,000 users per day by the end of the month. I believe this to be an optimistic number because several other new AAA games are releasing around that time. Even Anniversary campaign will pull people out of matchmaking for a few days per person.[/i]." There was a difference of approximately 200,000 from the mid-month low to the last week high. The big dip at the end pretty much wiped out all of the gains so my 100,000 guess was a little optimistic in my opinion. I don't think it wise for me guess what is going to happen in December but I'll throw in a weak prediction for a fairly flat population with a gradual increase towards the end of the year. Most of any increases will be from seasonal influences. This will be the month that tests fan interest in the Anniversary Map Pack and gametypes. I suppose individual playlist population is the next thing to watch. Will people gravitate towards the Anniversary TU playlists or will they stay in vanilla REACH? I am guessing vanilla will make gains at the expense of TU, though I'm not going to measure it. The multitudes of playlists and the fundamentally different gametypes within them is not good for Halo. It causes confusion. People naturally avoid confusion. Halo 3, at this point after launch, suffered its lowest population figures but it broke out of its doldrums and inexorably climbed back to top the XBLive charts. I can't imagine REACH doing the same, so the population differences should widen considerably in favour of Halo 3 as we go forward. Plenty of people will suggest Halo 3 had little of the competition REACH has now but they are not considering the 360 install base. I am hearing the install base is 3 to 5 times greater now than in 2008. No matter how much more it is, I figure if REACH were at least as popular as Halo 3 it should be doing better than Halo 3 did in population totals. Sure, it's always possible the FPS player population peaked in the early days of XBLive and most of the new players are into other genres. Does that really make sense though? No of course it doesn't. Young males like FPS games. There has to be lot more of them on XBLive now than in 2008. They are just playing other FPS games. Halo REACH is not dead and is currently trying to make up its mind about a come back. FPS fans need a good quality FPS title to play. Even with new AAA titles coming out REACH will continue to be a top tier AAA experience. Currently, only REACH can provide the best 'Halo experience'. It's core fans will stick with it until Halo 4 but even they will take breaks from it. If your Friends List is no longer showing anyone playing REACH, I recommend you get some new XBL friends. Links to previous population reports.
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| Replies: |
| November 2011 REACH Population Report | DEEP NNN | 11/30/11 9:12 p.m. |
| Re: November 2011 REACH Population Report | DEEP NNN | 12/3/11 3:55 p.m. |
| Re: November 2011 REACH Population Report | Hyokin | 12/3/11 4:10 p.m. |
| Re: November 2011 REACH Population Report | pete_the_duck | 12/3/11 4:29 p.m. |
| Re: November 2011 REACH Population Report | Phoenix_9286 | 12/3/11 4:48 p.m. |
| Re: November 2011 REACH Population Report | DEEP NNN | 12/3/11 5:41 p.m. |
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