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Posted By: MrHen Date: 10/25/06 5:18 a.m.
In Response To: Re: They also have a forced locality (Document)

: Exponential growth doesn't automatically equal doubling, though. It could be
: something like needing using 1% more CPU time each day.
Using a 1% exponential growth increase instead of a 100% growth increase would make it take longer, sure. Doing the math:
Day one: 0.0001% of resources
Day two: 0.000101% of resources
Day three: 0.00010201%
Week one: 0.000107213535%
Week two: 0.000114947421%
Year one: 0.00377834343%
Year two: 0.142758791%
Year three: 5.39391741%
Year four: 203.800724%
So just under four years (about 3.91, actually) Durandal would need all of the resources of the Marathon. This is assuming his starting point and growth rate is .0001 and .01, respectively.
While four years may seem like a while, remember that Durandal has been rampant for years.
: Days would also be a weird timeframe for an AI to use, but the point is that
: mathematically speaking, the shape of the growth curve doesn't tell you
: anything about how fast Rampancy progresses.
The shape of the growth curve can give us a reasonable estimate. Durandal has been "stuck" in rampancy due Strauss' control over him. He has been growing for a very long time.
If Traxus and Leela can subdue entire networks, it does not seem unreasonable that Durandal could subdue the Marathon. Given the numbers we used above as examples, the growth curve does show us that the initial growth is nearly insignificant and suddenly shoots up out of nowhere. Before year three, less than 1% was used. The year three marker shows an increase by five percent. Year four shows a hypothetical Durandal to have grown far beyond the confines of the Marathon.
All in all, the mathematics do not give us a locked down timeframe, but it does show that once it hits a certain point, it blows up.
As a last example, a friend of mine would love to crash PCs by writing a simple recursive C++ function that would allocate a small amount of memory and then call itself. It did not take long for the system to crash. Exponential growth will always grow fast, the only question is how long it takes until "fast" kicks in.

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: Using a 1% exponential growth increase instead of a 100% growth increase : would make it take longer, sure. Doing the math: Day one: 0.0001% of : resources : Day two: 0.000101% of resources : Day three: 0.00010201% : Week one: 0.000107213535% : Week two: 0.000114947421% : Year one: 0.00377834343% : Year two: 0.142758791% : Year three: 5.39391741% : Year four: 203.800724% : So just under four years (about 3.91, actually) Durandal would need all of : the resources of the Marathon. This is assuming his starting point and : growth rate is .0001 and .01, respectively. : While four years may seem like a while, remember that Durandal has been : rampant for years . : The shape of the growth curve can give us a reasonable estimate. Durandal has : been "stuck" in rampancy due Strauss' control over him. He has : been growing for a very long time. : If Traxus and Leela can subdue entire networks, it does not seem unreasonable : that Durandal could subdue the Marathon. Given the numbers we used above : as examples, the growth curve does show us that the initial growth is : nearly insignificant and suddenly shoots up out of nowhere. Before year : three, less than 1% was used. The year three marker shows an increase by : five percent. Year four shows a hypothetical Durandal to have grown far : beyond the confines of the Marathon. : All in all, the mathematics do not give us a locked down timeframe, but it : does show that once it hits a certain point, it blows up. : As a last example, a friend of mine would love to crash PCs by writing a : simple recursive C++ function that would allocate a small amount of memory : and then call itself. It did not take long for the system to crash. : Exponential growth will always grow fast, the only question is how long it : takes until "fast" kicks in.

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Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/2/05 1:37 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues NM	J-M	4/2/05 1:37 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/2/05 1:38 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	Bob-B-Q	4/2/05 2:29 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	duality	4/2/05 8:20 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/3/05 7:03 a.m.
They also have a forced locality	MrHen	4/3/05 8:52 a.m.
Does seem that way.	J-M	4/3/05 10:33 a.m.
Continuity	howekern	4/3/05 4:22 p.m.
Re: Continuity	J-M	4/3/05 8:45 p.m.
Re: Continuity	howekern	4/5/05 3:31 p.m.
Copied identities	MrHen	4/5/05 6:44 p.m.
Continuity again	Forrest of B.org	4/5/05 7:29 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	Chlazza	4/3/05 10:55 a.m.
Interesting.	J-M	4/3/05 1:01 p.m.
Re: Interesting.	Chlazza	4/3/05 2:45 p.m.
Re: Interesting.	J-M	4/3/05 3:19 p.m.
Copied people	MrHen	4/3/05 5:37 p.m.
Re: Interesting.	thermoplyae	4/3/05 6:45 p.m.
Re: Interesting.	J-M	4/3/05 8:49 p.m.
At least twice	MrHen	4/4/05 5:34 a.m.
Google just shows those two. NM	MrHen	4/4/05 5:57 a.m.
Re: Interesting.	thermoplyae	4/6/05 11:41 a.m.
Re: Interesting.	Chaemera	4/3/05 8:17 p.m.
modern AIs	Josh M.	4/13/05 7:53 p.m.
daisy daisy.... NM	duality	4/13/05 9:04 p.m.
Re: Interesting.	Document	10/24/06 7:53 a.m.
copying neural networks?	MrHen	10/24/06 4:45 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	howekern	4/5/05 4:03 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	blake37	4/5/05 4:25 p.m.
Yow... and I agree.	MrHen	4/5/05 7:12 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	J-M	4/6/05 1:56 a.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	Steve Levinson	4/6/05 7:44 a.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	J-M	4/6/05 5:50 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	MrHen	10/24/06 5:54 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	Forrest of B.org	10/24/06 6:29 p.m.
Where is Leela's last message?	MrHen	10/25/06 5:01 a.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	Document	10/25/06 9:50 a.m.
they spelled it wrong... NM	MrHen	10/25/06 10:18 a.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	Document	10/24/06 8:23 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	ukimalefu	10/24/06 8:53 p.m.
Re: They also have a forced locality	thermoplyae	10/24/06 10:49 p.m.
what?	MrHen	10/25/06 5:21 a.m.
Re: what?	thermoplyae	10/25/06 7:29 a.m.
misunderstandings... :P	MrHen	10/25/06 8:45 a.m.
Re: misunderstandings... :P	Document	10/25/06 9:52 a.m.
thanks! you rock...	MrHen	10/25/06 10:19 a.m.
Re: misunderstandings... :P	thermoplyae	10/25/06 11:57 a.m.
oh, got it	MrHen	10/25/06 12:59 p.m.
Re: oh, got it	thermoplyae	10/25/06 1:26 p.m.
#alephone, eh?	MrHen	10/25/06 8:30 p.m.
Re: #alephone, eh?	thermoplyae	10/25/06 11:17 p.m.
Rampancy and Exponentiatial Growth	Forrest of B.org	10/25/06 4:15 p.m.
Re: Rampancy and Exponentiatial Growth	thermoplyae	10/25/06 11:14 p.m.
More numbers	MrHen	10/25/06 5:18 a.m.
AIs as "Ghosts in the machine"	ForceMorph	4/8/05 6:16 p.m.
Re: AIs as "Ghosts in the machine"	Forrest of B.org	4/8/05 8:05 p.m.
Shades of Mamoru Oshii... NM	Bob-B-Q	4/9/05 5:56 a.m.
Re: "a planetary sized network"	Document	10/25/06 4:51 p.m.
My likely-nonsense theory	howekern	4/3/05 4:10 p.m.
Re: My likely-nonsense theory	Chaemera	4/3/05 8:28 p.m.
Re: My likely-nonsense theory	J-M	4/3/05 8:45 p.m.
Durandal has you! NM	ukimalefu	4/3/05 10:06 p.m.
Re: Durandal has you!	J-M	4/3/05 10:18 p.m.
Re: My likely-nonsense theory	MrHen	4/4/05 5:47 a.m.
Re: My likely-nonsense theory	Steve Levinson	4/4/05 12:19 p.m.
Stages of Rampancy in Human Psychology	Forrest of B.org	4/3/05 10:20 p.m.
Re: Stages of Rampancy in Human Psychology	Forrest of B.org	4/3/05 10:22 p.m.
Re: Stages of Rampancy in Human Psychology	MrHen	4/4/05 5:55 a.m.
Re: Stages of Rampancy in Human Psychology	Document	11/1/06 9:31 a.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/6/05 5:55 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	Forrest of B.org	4/7/05 8:34 a.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/7/05 4:37 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	Forrest of B.org	4/7/05 5:10 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/8/05 1:41 a.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	Steve Levinson	4/8/05 8:29 a.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	duality	4/11/05 1:57 p.m.
Doesn't account for the world reset.	MrHen	4/13/05 5:40 a.m.
Re: Doesn't account for the world reset.	Andrew Nagy (mb)	4/13/05 10:48 a.m.
Re: Doesn't account for the world reset.	howekern	4/13/05 4:39 p.m.
Re: Doesn't account for the world reset.	ukimalefu	4/14/05 12:52 p.m.
Yeah, but that's boring	MrHen	4/15/05 8:03 a.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	Forrest of B.org	4/11/05 3:11 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	J-M	4/11/05 3:42 p.m.
Re: Cybertonics, AIs, and fundamental issues	Document	10/24/06 8:49 a.m.
Re: Cybertonics, The Autonomy of an AI	AlexZander	10/30/06 2:35 p.m.



	Your Name:
	Your E-Mail Address:
	Subject:
	Message: : Using a 1% exponential growth increase instead of a 100% growth increase : would make it take longer, sure. Doing the math: Day one: 0.0001% of : resources : Day two: 0.000101% of resources : Day three: 0.00010201% : Week one: 0.000107213535% : Week two: 0.000114947421% : Year one: 0.00377834343% : Year two: 0.142758791% : Year three: 5.39391741% : Year four: 203.800724% : So just under four years (about 3.91, actually) Durandal would need all of : the resources of the Marathon. This is assuming his starting point and : growth rate is .0001 and .01, respectively. : While four years may seem like a while, remember that Durandal has been : rampant for years . : The shape of the growth curve can give us a reasonable estimate. Durandal has : been "stuck" in rampancy due Strauss' control over him. He has : been growing for a very long time. : If Traxus and Leela can subdue entire networks, it does not seem unreasonable : that Durandal could subdue the Marathon. Given the numbers we used above : as examples, the growth curve does show us that the initial growth is : nearly insignificant and suddenly shoots up out of nowhere. Before year : three, less than 1% was used. The year three marker shows an increase by : five percent. Year four shows a hypothetical Durandal to have grown far : beyond the confines of the Marathon. : All in all, the mathematics do not give us a locked down timeframe, but it : does show that once it hits a certain point, it blows up. : As a last example, a friend of mine would love to crash PCs by writing a : simple recursive C++ function that would allocate a small amount of memory : and then call itself. It did not take long for the system to crash. : Exponential growth will always grow fast, the only question is how long it : takes until "fast" kicks in.
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