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December 2011 REACH Population Report
Posted By: DEEP NNN <deep_nnn@hotmail.com>Date: 1/1/12 9:23 a.m.


These values are unofficial and collected manually by me from the Bungie REACH project page. I make no guarantees for the accuracy of this data and provided no quality control or quality assurance for my work in collecting it.
http://www.bungie.net/Projects/Reach/default.aspx

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In the following graph I attempted to offset Halo 3 values such that similar days of the week for December were compared. I am not 100% happy with the result but I still feel it is a better comparison than just using exact dates.
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December 2011 REACH UU/24hr
Date, Games, Unique Users

December 1, 2011 509,581 310,892
December 2, 2011 578,142 319,244
December 3, 2011 990,303 465,671
December 4, 2011 1,039,394 473,592
December 5, 2011 768,003 399,504
December 6, 2011 687,047 337,492
December 7, 2011 540,975 314,771
December 8, 2011 519,955 313,850
December 9, 2011 580,293 329,790
December 10, 2011 910,732 435,156
December 11, 2011 1,050,766 483,239
December 12, 2011 799,948 415,378
December 13, 2011 648,130 344,432
December 14, 2011 623,929 332,927
December 15, 2011 624,023 339,963
December 16, 2011 672,934 363,267
December 17, 2011 891,493 449,541
December 18, 2011 1,054,839 483,324
December 19, 2011 942,443 460,833
December 20, 2011 945,708 443,974
December 21, 2011 960,444 457,307
December 22, 2011 1,021,016 475,081
December 23, 2011 1,121,865 497,544
December 24, 2011 1,034,280 505,678
December 25, 2011 813,253 456,810
December 26, 2011 922,171 482,522
December 27, 2011 1,124,225 529,705
December 28, 2011 1,204,223 546,827
December 29, 2011 1,196,471 546,112
December 30, 2011 1,193,246 557,356
December 31, 2011 1,189,479 558,730

Disclosure for my collection methods.
I use a simple copy and paste from Bungie's REACH project page around noon local time. Not all values were collected at exactly that time. Occasionally collection could be off by several hours. I only guarantee that I have made no willful misrepresentations by deliberately skewing collection in such a manner that poor conclusions or comparisons could be made or that any numbers presented are anything other than attempts to collect data from Bungie.

Draw conclusions at your own risk.

My observations.
REACH's 24hr UU population in December was quite steady. The first half of the month was fairly unchanging but what changes there were, were positive. The big seasonal influences kicked in mid month. It's no secret that student availability to spend time gaming increases in the last two weeks of December. The overall population had increased by at least 100,000 per 24 hour period.

Highest population value collected 558,730.

Lowest population value collected 310,892.

Weekends have typically had a higher population.

REACH population by the end of December 2011, was under performing by ~100,000/24hrs as compared to Halo 3 during December 2008. This actually is an improvement over last month. It is important to note that at this same point in Halo 3's life, it was at the beginning of a steady climb back to the top of the XBLive charts.

Conclusions.
Halo REACH's population is healthy and somewhat stable.

Overall population is increasing significantly.

Opinion.
My guess from last month appears to have been sort of correct again but I was surprised by the overall population gains. "I'll throw in a weak prediction for a fairly flat population with a gradual increase towards the end of the year. Most of any increases will be from seasonal influences." The question to be answered now is, can REACH hang on to some of these increases once the seasonal influences are removed.

Last month I stated "This will be the month that tests fan interest in the Anniversary Map Pack and gametypes. I suppose individual playlist population is the next thing to watch. Will people gravitate towards the Anniversary TU playlists or will they stay in vanilla REACH? I am guessing vanilla will make gains at the expense of TU, though I'm not going to measure it." My favorite game developer, 343i saw fit to throw a wrench in at the last moment. By pushing TU gametypes into more vanilla playlists some potential measurable variables were lost. Just to get back at them for that huge betrayal (j/k), I reversed my decision to not measure individual playlist population numbers. I'll sure show them! Yeah, right, it's hard work collecting those numbers and I'm the only one being punished. It's like a cruel joke on me. ;) In the end, dear readers you will soon get the benefit of seeing those reams of flow charts. Exciting times, is it not?

Prediction for next month. January 3 should mark the beginning of a fairly steep decline in population that should bottom out after about a week and then commence a steady weekly rhythm with little population change. The month should end with a higher population than December started with. I am assuming more Halo CE Anniversary and REACH units would have been acquired over the Christmas holidays.

Halo 3, at this point after launch, began its inexorable climb back to top the XBLive charts. Though REACH closed some of that gap by the end of December, I can't imagine it continuing on that path, so the population differences should widen considerably in favour of Halo 3 as we go forward.

Halo REACH is not dead and is currently rallying its troops. Is it a sign of a come back?

FPS fans need a good quality FPS title to play. Even with new AAA titles coming out REACH will continue to be a top tier AAA experience. Currently, only REACH can provide the best 'Halo experience'. Its core fans will stick with it until Halo 4 but even they will take breaks from it.

If your Friends List is no longer showing anyone playing REACH, I recommend you get some new XBL friends.

Links to previous population reports.
Newest to oldest.
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1114365
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1109470
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1103658
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1098060
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1091242
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1084475
http://hf.smallbits.com/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1068845
http://carnage.bungie.org/haloforum/halo.forum.pl?read=1074439


Message Index




Replies:

December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/1/12 9:23 a.m.
     Re: December 2011 REACH Population Reportdavidfuchs 1/1/12 3:41 p.m.
           Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/1/12 4:29 p.m.
                 Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportStephen L. (SoundEffect) 1/1/12 5:14 p.m.
                       Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/1/12 7:04 p.m.
                             Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportGeneral Vagueness 1/1/12 9:06 p.m.
                                   Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/1/12 9:47 p.m.
                                         Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportHyokin 1/1/12 9:50 p.m.
                                               Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/1/12 9:55 p.m.
                                         Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportGeneral Vagueness 1/1/12 10:23 p.m.
                                               Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/2/12 6:28 a.m.
                                                     Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportGeneral Vagueness 1/2/12 10:48 a.m.
                             Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportStephen L. (SoundEffect) 1/1/12 10:15 p.m.
                                   Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportRevenant1988 1/1/12 10:17 p.m.
                                   Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportGeneral Vagueness 1/1/12 10:30 p.m.
                             Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportRevenant1988 1/1/12 10:15 p.m.
                                   Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportGeneral Vagueness 1/1/12 10:43 p.m.
                                         Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportRevenant1988 1/2/12 9:59 a.m.
                                               Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportGeneral Vagueness 1/2/12 11:16 a.m.
                                   Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportDEEP NNN 1/2/12 6:24 a.m.
                 Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportRC Master 1/1/12 8:00 p.m.
                 Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportFyreWulff 1/1/12 9:09 p.m.
                       Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportOverdoziz 1/1/12 9:38 p.m.
                       Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportHyokin 1/1/12 9:48 p.m.
                             Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportFyreWulff 1/1/12 9:58 p.m.
                                   Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportRt. Hon. Wolzee 1/2/12 8:47 a.m.
                                         Re: December 2011 REACH Population ReportHyokin 1/2/12 11:31 a.m.



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